On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, and Somaliland’s President, Muse Bihi, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), granting Ethiopia naval and commercial access to coastal areas along the Gulf of Aden. In exchange, Ethiopia will formally recognize Somaliland, which previously declared an unrecognized secession from Somalia. While the MoU is not legally binding, it sets the stage for a potential formal treaty, with further details expected in a follow-up meeting. Reacting to the MoU, the Somali government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, convened an emergency cabinet meeting and a joint parliamentary session to strongly oppose the agreement. This stance is also echoed by prominent Somali politicians and intellectuals who expressed serious concerns about the agreement's implications for Somalia's sovereignty and regional stability. Ethiopia's history in Somalia, especially post-state collapse, suggests a strategic use of Somalia's instability and challenges, like those posed by Al-Shabaab, to advance its own interests. This perspective also seems to inform Ethiopia's current contemplation of annexing Somali territory. However, Ethiopia's 2006 military intervention in Somalia under Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, which resulted in a challenging and complex conflict leading to their withdrawal, serves as a reminder that military strength alone does not ensure success or influence, particularly in regions with deep political and social complexities. In response to the present aggression, Somalia has several options, including bolstering national unity, strengthening internal governance, and enhancing diplomatic relations with regional and international allies. By forming a united front and leveraging diplomatic channels, Somalia can more effectively counter external misjudgements or aggressions. Internal Governance and Security Somalia can prioritize strengthening its military capabilities, central to which is developing a cohesive governance model that incorporates clan militias like SSC and Macawisley into the official government security forces. This strategy involves professionalizing these militias, fostering a sense of national duty, and ensuring their adherence to laws. Such a transformation is critical for a stronger defence against external threats like annexation. Negotiating with Al-Shabaab, despite its risks, is another crucial step against foreign threats. It entails engaging with the group as a political entity to mitigate internal conflict and violence. This could solidify the country’s defence against external threats, although it requires careful navigation due to Al-Shabaab's designation as a terrorist organization by various countries and international organisations. Another tactic in Somalia's strategic response to potential annexation is to support or establish resistance movements in Somaliland. This involves providing these groups with logistical, military, and political assistance. By backing these movements, Somalia can create a more formidable front against annexation efforts, leveraging both local and potentially international support to bolster its position and safeguard its sovereignty. Somalia could also expel the Ethiopian contingent from the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). This would signify a profound shift in regional military relationships and operations. It would also indicate a possible reassessment of Somalia's approach to external military involvement, reflecting a desire to redefine its defence strategies and control. Regional Diplomacy and Alliances On the diplomatic front, Somalia's strategy could involve building and strengthening alliances with other countries in the region and international players who are equally threatened by the reckless actions of the Ethiopian government. Eritrea's historical relationship with Ethiopia positions it as a crucial ally in the region. Eritrea's strategic importance and its contentious past with Ethiopia could make it a key player in counterbalancing Ethiopian influence in the Horn of Africa. Restoring diplomatic relations with Iran could significantly alter the geopolitical, presenting Somalia with a powerful ally. Iran's involvement in regional affairs has the potential to shift the balance of power, potentially offering Somalia a strategic partnership to counter Ethiopian influence. This diplomatic move could enhance Somalia's position in regional politics, providing a counterweight to Ethiopia's actions and alliances in the Horn of Africa. A key aspect of Somalia's diplomatic strategy should be the revaluation of relationships with countries whose interests may align with Ethiopia's, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Adjusting ties with the UAE is crucial, considering its close economic cooperation with Ethiopia. This recalibration aims to mitigate any negative impacts and potential threats that might arise from this relationship, ensuring Somalia's interests are protected and its diplomatic position is strengthened in the face of Ethiopian influence in the region. A more controversial, yet potentially impactful, strategy would be a retaliatory recognition and encouragement of secessionist movements within Ethiopia, such as those in the Tigray or Oromia. This approach could internally destabilize Ethiopia, diverting its focus and resources away from external annexation efforts. While this could weaken Ethiopia's ability to meddle in our affairs, it also carries significant risks, including escalating regional conflicts and attracting international criticism. Moreover, aligning with Ethiopia’s regional rivals, particularly Egypt, could provide strategic leverage. Egypt's historical disputes with Ethiopia, especially over the Nile River, could align with the interests of resisting Ethiopian expansion. Collaboration with Egypt might extend to various domains, including diplomatic support, intelligence sharing, or even the provision of military basis. Seeking a powerful international ally, "godfather", is also a significant strategic move. This approach involves forging an alliance with a globally influential country that can provide both diplomatic backing and military support. The ideal ally would be a state with considerable clout on the international stage, capable of effectively deterring Ethiopian annexation efforts. In return for this support, the ally should receive a significantly advantageous access to Somalia's vast natural resources. Legal Actions Somalia could leverage international legal frameworks to contest any annexation attempts. This might involve bringing the issue to international bodies like the United Nations or the African Union to seek a peaceful and lawful resolution. Engaging in dialogue and negotiations to find a mutually beneficial solution while maintaining sovereignty could be another diplomatic approach. Implementing legal measures against renegade factions like the secessionists within the country is another critical response. This strategy would involve prosecuting individuals or groups that support the annexation or otherwise undermine the government's position. Actions could include filing treason charges and issuing international arrest warrants. Such measures would demonstrate a strong commitment to national sovereignty and might deter similar actions by other groups. Each of these strategies entails a complex interplay of diplomatic, economic, and military considerations. They necessitate careful evaluation of long-term regional implications, potential international responses, and the overarching objective of maintaining our territorial integrity. Dr Abdifatah Ismael Tahir is a researcher with a keen interest in urban politics, governance, and geopolitics in the Horn of Africa region. He holds a PhD in geography, specializing in urban governance, from the University of Sussex in the United Kingdom.

Hordhac Shirka sanadlaha ah ee Heritage ku qabato Djibouti waxa sanadkan hadal buuq dhaliyay ka jeediyay Ra'iisul Wasaare ku xigeenkii hore ee Soomaaliya, Mne Mahdi Guuleed. Kalmadiisu waxay ku saabsanayd iskaashiga dalalka Geeska Afrika. Dooddiisa waxa udub dhexaad u ahayd is iska illaawo tagtadii, si barwaaqo loo gaadho mustabalka. Culimada taariikhdu waxay arintan ku tilmaamaan tirtir taariikheed. Hadalkiisii qodob qodob uga jawaabi maayo laakiin waxaan rabaa in aan dadweynaha u iftiimiyo dhibka tirtirka taariikhdu leeyahay.   Tirtir taariikheedka waxa lagu qeexaa ka tagidda ama qarinta ula kaca ah ee qaybo ka mid ah sheekooyinka taariikheed ee ummadi ama bulsho leedahay.  Tusaalayaasha dunida soo maray qarniyadii dhowaa ee ku saabsan tirtitka taariikhda waxa ka mid ah kuwii ay sameeyeen gumeystayaashii reer Yurub, ee ay ku baabi'iyeen raadadka muhiimka ah ee taariikhaha dadkii ay qabsadeen.    Mid ka mid ah mufakariinta reer Yurub ee u doodi jirey in la gumaysiga yaa laga wariyey inuu yidhi “haddaad rabto inaad baabi’iso ummad, taariikhdooda weerar, ka dib iyagaa isa soo dhiibi e!” Tani waxay keentay in aan si dhab ah loo fahmin waxyeeladii iyo waayihii gumeysigu dhaxalsiiyay dhaqanka, dhaqaalaha iyo siyaasadaha kuwii la gumeystay.   Tusaalooyinka tirtirka taariikhdu ma aha kuwo yar. Balse, casharka guud ee laga baran karo dhammaan dhacdooyinkan waa in tirtirka ama beddelka taariikhdu yahay tacadi weyn oo saameyn ballaaran ku leh sida aan u fahamno nolosha, bulshada, iyo taariikhda. Sixitaanka arrimahanarrimahaan oo kale waxay u baahanyihiin dadaal aad u ballaaran, maadaama ay tahay in la helo xogta asalka ah, la fahmo sababaha ka dambeeya beddelka, iyo in la soo celiyo sheekada taariikhda sida ugu saxsan ee suurtagalka ah.   Anshaxa iyo Tirtirka Taarikhda Diinta Islaamka waxay si weyn uga hadashaa muhiimadda in aan taariikhda laga leexin hilinkeeda runta ah. Tani waxay si cad uga muuqataa Quraanka, halkaas oo aayado badan ay ka hadlayaan dhacdooyin iyo shaqsiyaad raad weyn ku yeeshay taariikhda diinta islaamka. Tusaale ahaan, Quraanku wuxuu xusayaa Abu Jahal, Abu Lahab, iyo Waliid Bin Muqiira, kuwaas oo ahaa dadkii hor istaagay fidinta diinta Islaamka isla markaana dhibaatayn jiray Nebi Muxammad (NNKH).   Waxaa xiiso leh in carruurtii ama qaraabadii qaar ka mid ah dadkaas, sida wiilashooda ama gabdhahooda, ay markii dambe qaateen diinta Islaamka. Waxayna akhrin jireen aayado Quraanka ka mid ah oo si toos ah uga hadlaya aabayaashood iyo falalkoodii. Islamka ma aha diin dhiirigelisa in taariikhda laga leexiyo ama laga tago qeybaha aan ina farxad gelineyn; taas bedelkeeda, waxay dhiirigelisaa in si dhab ah loo wajaho taariikhda oo dhan, iyadoo aan loo eegin inay tahay mid wanaagsan ama xun.   Sidoo kale, dhaqanka Soomaalida waxaa si qoto dheer uga muuqata qiimaha ay u leedahay run-sheegidda iyo daacadnimada taariikhda. Tani waxay si gaar ah uga muuqataa suugaanta Soomaaliyeed, gaar ahaan gabayada oo lagu yaqaanaa inay yihiin habka ugu muhiimsan ee loo gudbiyo taariikhda, dhacdooyinka, iyo arrimaha bulshada ee Soomaalida iyada oo aan waxba laga beddelin ama la isku mulaaqin.   Gabayadu waxay ku salaysanyihiin xeerar adag oo xagga run-sheegga ah. Tusaale ahaan, waxaa jira in ragga qaarkood ay iska deyn jireen gabayada ilaa ay timaado dhacdo muhiim ah oo ay ka gabayan. Halkaa waxa ka muuqata in sugaanyahannada Soomaalidu aad ugu dadaali jireen inay si daacad ah uga warramaan dhacdooyinka iyo xaaladaha ay arkaan xitaa haddii dhacdooyinka qaarkood ay yihiin kuwo la dhibsanayo.   Saamaynta Tirtirka Taariikhda Waxaa xaqiiqo ah in quruumuha jira badankoodu ku samaysmeen colaado iyo dagaalo kala duwan oo qaarkood yihiin kuwo sokeeye qaarna lala galay shisheeye. Inta lagu jiro colaadahaas waxa dhaca tacadiyo ama xadgudubyo loo gaysto keli keli ama wadar, kuwaas oo qayb ka noqda dunta taariikhda dalkaas. Fikradda tirtirka dhacdooyinka iyo sheekooyinka taariikhda noocaas ah ma aha oo kaliya mid waxyeello u geysaneysa hufnaanta diiwaanka taariikhda dalka, laakiin sidoo kale ma aha waddo lagu gaadho badhaadhe ama deris wanaag.   Taa caksigeeda, tirtirka taariikhdu waxay khatar gelin kartaa geeddi-socodka barashada qaladaadkii hore, kobcinta fahamka, iyo aasaaska dhismaha dib-u-heshiisiinta iyo iskaashiga mustaqbalka. Bulshooyinka dimoqraadiga ah, waxaa taariikhda loo sheegaa sida ay u dhacday, iyadoo xoogga la saarayo dabeecadaha kala duwan ee dhacdooyinkaas. Tan waxaa tusaale u ah xiriirka ka dhexeeya Jarmalka iyo Faransiiska.   Inkastoo ay leeyihiin taariikh murugsan oo colaado ka buuxaan haba ugu danbeeyaan kuwii DD2, waxay ka run sheegaan taariikhdooda, taasoo horseeday xiriir ku dhisan faham wadaag, ixtiraam, iyo iskaashi. Taas waxa lagu gaadhay aaminsanaanta ah in aqoonsiga iyo barashada taariikhda ay muhiim u tahay dhismaha nabad waarta iyo xiriir wanaagsan. Taariikhdu badanaa waxay u adeegtaa keyd aqooneed iyo waayo-aragnimo, iyadoo bixisa casharro qiimo u leh jiilalka hadda jira iyo kuwa mustaqbalka.   Marka qaybo ka mid ah taariikhda la tirtiro, waxay xadideysaa fahamkeenna ku aadan jiritaanka dalkeena. Sida dalal badan oo kale, taariikhdeenna waxaa ka buuxa dhacdooyin aan ina raali gelin ama deriskeena raali gelin. Dhacdooyinkan taariikheed, in kasta oo ay adag yihiin, waa muhiim in la fahmo. Fikradda ah in la tirtiro taariikhdan waxay meesha ka saaraysaa saameynta weyn ee ay wacyiga taariikhdu ku leedahay go'aamada iyo siyaasadaha maanta.   Dhigaalka taariikhda, oo ay ku jiraan kuwa xanuunka badan, waa tallaabo muhiim u ah mustaqbalka sababtoo ah waxay u suuro gelin doontaa jiilalka inaga danbeeya in ay si cad u fahmaan taariikhdooda hore, iyagoo wax ka baranaya si ay u dhisaan waaqic ka duwan kii dhaliyay xaaladaha adag ee taariikhda ku jira.   Soo-celinta Taariikhaha la Tirtirey Iska daa in la tirtiro taariikhdii hadda jirta’e, in badan oo ka mid ah dunidu waxa ka socda dadaalo ballaaran oo lagu ku bixinayo sidii dib loogu soo celin lahaa diiwaanno taariikheed oo hore loo tirtirey. Dhaqdhaqaaqyadan waxaa tusaale u ah dalal ay ka mid yihiin Koonfur Afrika iyo Mareykanka. Dedaalada Koonfur Afrika waxay ka tarjumayaa waxtarka ballaaran ku jira xasuusta xanuunkii hore, ilaalinta xusuusta xanuunkaas, iyo abuurista dhaqan daahfuran.   Sidoo kale, Mareykanka waxa ka jira geedi socod dib loogu qiimeynayo sheekooyinkiisa taariikhiga ah, gaar ahaan daaweynta dhaxalka qabsashada quruumaha. Mid ka mid ah hababka ay dalalkaasi isticmaalayaan waa dib-u-eegista manhajka waxbarashada si loogu daro sheekooyin taariikhi ah oo hore uga maqnaa. Tan waxa ka mid ah baridda iyo kobcinta xirfadaha naqdiga oo awood u siinaya ardayda inay su'aal geliyaan eexda ku jirta sheekooyinka qaarkood.   Teena haddaan u soo noqdo, taariikhda Ahmed Gurey iyo Sayid Maxamed Cabdulle Xasan (Sayidka), labadaas hogaamiye oo kaalin weyn ka qaatay taariikhda Soomaalida iyo guud ahaan Geeska Afrika, waxay u baahan yihiin in si qoto dheer loo daraaseeyo oo loo fahmo. Afka may ahayn in la soo mariyo in laga tago, hoos loo dhigo ama la iska indho tiro doorka iyo saameynta taariikhdooda. Taa caksigeeda, waxa waajib ah in in si dhab ah loo darso, loo qiimeeyo, loona faafiyo taariikhda iyo dhaxalka ay ka tageen labadan hogaamiye. Tani waxay gacan ka geysanaysaa in bulshada Soomaaliyeed iyo bulshooyinka kaleba ay fahmaan qiimaha iyo saameynta taariikhda Soomaaliyeed ay ku leedahay Afrika iyo adduunkaba.   Caddaaladda iyo Tirtirka Taariikhda Tirtirka xaqiiqooyinka taariikhda waa nooc ka mid ah cadaalad-darrooyinka waaweyn. Waxay waxyeelleynaysaa xuquuqda bulshadu ay u leeyihiin inay helaan taariikhdooda oo dhab ah. Tirtirka taariikhdu waxay horseedaa dheelitir la'aan awooddeed iyo sinaan la'aan. Tani waa mid gaar muhiim ugu ah dadka Soomaaliyeed ee ku nool Itoobiya iyo Kenya, sababtoo ah waxay waxyeeleysa tixgelinta halgankooda ka dhanka ahaa dowladaha hadda ay qaybta ka yihiin.   Gobolka Soomaalida Ethiopia wuxuu ahaa goob dagaal iyo dhibaato muddo dheer socotay. Intii lagu jiray xilliyadii WSLF iyo kadib ONLF, gobolku wuxuu hoy u ahaa jabhado hubaysan oo la diriraya dawlada Ethiopia. Jawaabta dowladda Itoobiya ee dhaqdhaqaaqyadan badanaa waxaa ku jiray hawl-galo foolxun. Hawlgaladaasi waxay sababeen dilal aan loo aabo yeelin, barakicin, burburinta ilo dhaqaale iyo tirtir dhaqan.   Sidoo kale Soomaalida gobolka waqooyi bari ee Kenya waxay la kulmeen cabudhin ba'an intii lagu jiray dagaalkii ka dhashay rabitaanka bulshada oo ahaa in ay la middoobaan ehelkooda Soomaaliya. Jawaabta dowladda Kenya waxay ahayd mid naxariis darro ah, oo ay ku jiraan xasuuqyo, gubidda tuulooyin, iyo cabudhin nidaamsan. Dhaxalka falalkan wali wuxuu saameyn ku leeyahay bulshada, iyadoo arrimaha faquuqinta iyo shakiga ay sii socdaan.   Wax ka qabashada cadaalad-darradan waxay u baahan tahay hab dhammaystiran oo ay ku jiraan aqoonsiga dhacdooyinkan, fahamka saameyntooda, iyo bixinta magdhow ku habboon. In la tirtiro qaar ka mid ah aragtiyihii daraadood loo dhibaateeyay waxay wiiqeysaa raadinta xuquuqda ka maqan. In kasta oo Soomaaliya ay tahay dal madax banaan, haddana taariikhda dugsiyadeeda lagu dhigo ee ay ka mid yihiin Sayid Maxamed Cabdulle Xasan iyo Axmed Gurey waxa miskaha uga xidhantay taariikhda Soomaalida walaaleheen ah ee qalinka gumeysigu raacsiiyay dalalka jaarka ah.   Ma jirto hadda dawlad Soomaaliyeed ama haldoor Soomaaliyeed oo ku hawlan in colaad lala galo dalalka jaarka ah. Laakiin taa macneheedu ma aha in taariikda qaar la tirtiro, la qariyo ama hoos loo dhigo. Tagtadii tagtay, way tagtay eelna waa ka tagtay. Sheyga muhiimka ah waa in caddaalad waarta laga dhaliyo taariikhda halkii laga tirtiri lahaa.   Qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah caddaalad ka dhalinta taariikhda waa aqoonsiga wixii dhacay. Aqoonsigu waa tallaabo muhiim ah oo loo qaado dhanka bogsashada iyo dib-u-heshiisiinta, maadaama uu diiwaan geliyo waaya'aragnimada dhibbanayaasha isla markaana uu muujiyo ballanqaad loo hayo in la saxo xadgudubyada. Qayb kale waa magdhow. Tani waxay qaadan kartaa qaabab kala duwan, oo ay ku jiraan magdhow dhaqaale, soo celinta hanti, ama magdhowyo kale oo maadi ah.   Aasaasidda taallooyin, matxafyo, ama munaasabadaha xuska waxay gacan ka gaystaan in la xasuusto dhibbanayaasha oo kor loo qaado wacyiga ku saabsan cadaalad-darradii dhacday. Tani ma aha oo kaliya inay naruuro u tahay kuway dhibaatadu soo gaartay laakiin sidoo kale waxay waxbaraysaa jiilalka mustaqbalka, iyadoo gacan ka geysanaysa xusuusta wadajirka ah ee looga hortagi karo in mar kale la soo celiyo dhacdooyinka noocaas ah.   Abuurista guddiyo ama hay'ado kale oo loo xilsaaray baaritaanka iyo diiwaangelinta xaqiiqooyinka ku saabsan caddaalad-darrada hore ayaa iyana muhiim ah. Ururinta markhaatiyaasha dhibbanayaasha iyo kuwa dhibka geystayba waxay ka caawisaa in la abuuro faham ballaaran oo faahfaahsan oo ku saabsan waxa dhacay, sababta, iyo sida ay u saameysay shaqsiyaadka iyo bulshooyinka.   Gunaanad Taariikhda, oo leh dhammaan faahfaahinteeda guulaha iyo dhibaatooyinka, waxay asaas u tahay qiimaha qaranka.  In hal-doorka dalkeenna ay u ol'oleeyaan tirtirka taariikhda qaranka si ay u raalli geliyaan dalalka deriska ah waa arrin dhalinaysa su'aalo muhiim ah waxaana loo arki karaa inay tahay khiyaano ka dhan ah qaranka. Falalka noocan oo kale ah ma aha oo kaliya inay qalloociyaan taariikhda laakiin sidoo kale waxay ka hor istaagayaan jiilalka mustaqbalka fursadda ay ka heli karaan inay wax ka bartaan taariikhdooda oo sax ah.   Saxnaanta taariikhdu waa muhiim, maadaama ay bixiso casharro lagama maarmaan u ah go'aan qaadashada iyo horumarka bulshada. Caadi ahaan, hal-doorka waxay saameyn weyn ku leeyihiin aragtida dadweynaha iyo samaynta siyaasadaha. Haddii ay u ololeeyaan tirtirka taariikhda, waxaa loo arki karaa inay tahay isticmaal awooddeed oo khaldan. Arrintani waxay gaar ahaan walwal leedahay haddii ujeeddadu tahay in la gaaro yoolal gaaban halkii laga eegi lahaa danaha fog ee qaranka.   Hal-doorka waxay mas'uuliyadi ka saarantay inay ilaaliyaan taariikhda qarankooda, xitaa marka ay tahay inay maareeyaan xaalado diblomaasiyadeed oo adag. Marka laga hadlayo xidhiidhada caalamiga ah iyo diblomaasiyadda, in kasta oo ay muhiim tahay in la ilaaliyo saaxiibtinimada iyo iskaashiga dalalka deriska ah, tani waa inaysan horseedin in la baabi'iyo taariikhda qaranka. Xidhiidhada diblomaasiyadeed waxaa lagu maamuli karaa oo lagu hagi karaa habab ixtiraamaya xaqiiqooyinka taariikhda ee dhinacyada oo dhan. Dr Abdifatah Tahir waa cilmi baadhe wax ka qora arimaha siyaasada iyo horumarinta magaalooyinka Geeska Africa. Sidoo kale waa la taliye (consultant) madax banaan oo hay’ado kala duwan kala taliya arimaha horumarinta. Waxa lagala xiriiri karaa emailka ah: abdifatah.tahir@gmail.com ama barta twitterka ee: @AbdifatahTahir